New Discriminant Method for Identifying the Aggressive Disease Phenotype of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Objective To detect the aggressive phenotype (AP) of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) based on the initial laboratory data and clinical characteristics. Methods We enrolled 144 patients with histologically proven NAFLD. For the first analysis, 24 NAFLD patients underwent repeat biopsy to establish a discriminant formula for predicting the AP of NAFLD (D-APN). The AP was defined by NAFLD that had been maintained or progressed to a fibrotic stage beyond stage 2. In the second analysis, we analyzed the distribution of the AP in each stage of disease and the incidence of the PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype in AP in 120 other patients. Results After the analysis, the following function was found to discriminate the disease phenotype: z=0.150×body mass index (kg/m2)+0.085×age (years)+1.112×ln (AST) (IU/L)+0.127×ln (m-AST)-12.96. A positive result indicates the AP of NAFLD. The discriminant functions had a positive predictive value of 94% and a negative predictive value of 71%. The distribution of the AP and the incidence of the PNPLA3 GG genotype in the AP in each stage of the disease among the 120 patients were as follows: non-alcoholic fatty liver, 30%/33%; non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) stage 1, 53%/26%; stage 2, 71%/70%; stage 3, 92%/57%; and stage 4, 93%/64%; there was a significant increase in the incidence of the AP as the disease progressed (p<0.001). Conclusion The new discriminant formula was useful for predicting disease progression potential in NAFLD patients and the incidence of the PNPLA3 GG genotype was elevated according to the distribution of AP.